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A new report from Wells Fargo's Jay Bryson and Mackenzie Miller takes a look at developing economies and their potential exposure to a financial crisis.
Bryson and Miller rank the 28 largest developing economies based on economic indicators that are associated with financial crises: "Foreign exchange (FX) reserves, the real exchange rate, growth in credit, GDP growth, and the current account. That is, countries that have low FX reserves, an appreciated exchange rate, rapid credit and GDP growth, and current account deficits tend to have the highest probabilities for financial crises."
Bryson and Miller stress that crises are not necessarily inevitable for these countries, but "developments in these economies bear watching in coming years."
"It appears that the potential economic growth rate in the developing world has downshifted from the very robust rate that was achieved prior to the global financial crisis," they write.
We took the 12 countries with the highest (most vulnerable) composite score.
12. South Africa
FX Reserves (% of nominal GDP): 23
Real Exchange Rate (% change from 2009): 14
Real GDP (% change from 2009): 4
Domestic Credit to Private Sector: 12
Current Account (% of GDP): 26
Total Score: 79
Comment: South Africa has a huge mining sector, and is the world's largest producer of platinum, gold, and chromium.
Comment: Indonesia has gone under many financial reforms in the past few years, and joined China and India as the only G20 members to grow in 2009. Still, the country is beset with poverty, unemployment, corruption, and poor infrastructure.